BY Julie Speed
Contributing Writer, Delta Business Journal

  Same song, third verse. Agricultural economists predict a third year of weak commodity prices for the U.S. farm economy, particularly in the Delta.
  “The outlook for cotton prices are not very rosy right now,” said cotton farmer Kenneth Hood in Bolivar County. “Even though we have a fairly good domestic use, which looks like it will be up, the total acres being planted with the projected 19.4 million bale crops is keeping cotton prices trading within a very narrow range.”
  Agricultural exports are holding steady, with a forecast of $49.5 billion for fiscal year 2000, representing a slight rise over the previous year. And even though U.S. farm prices indicate a market downturn for many growers, an overall farm economic crisis has not materialized primarily because of built-in government supports and supplemental emergencyn disaster assistance.
  Soybean prices for 1999-2000 were expected to hit a 28-year low, prompting many farmers to switch gears.
  “We raise soybean crops, but not this year,” said Hood. “We’re basically going to get away from soybeans because of the low current price, plus the future price of soybeans doesn’t look very good, either.”
  Other row crops are breaking records, but not for as lengthy a time period. Cotton prices haven’t been lower since 1974-75. Corn and wheat prices are similarly as low as 1986-87’s growing season. Rice’s lowest prices can be compared to the early 1990s.
  Hood is switching to grain sorghum for a better crop rotation and a potentially better net return, he said.
  “The weather forecast has entered into that somewhat, also, because grain sorghum milo is more drought resistant than soybeans,” he said. “Sorghum futures are not much better than any of the other commodities, but it’s a good crop to rotate with cotton.”
  Several factors have kept an overall farm economic catastrophe from occurring. Global economies are improving, the national farm balance sheet is strong, with rising farm real estate values and record-high government subsidies, agricultural banks are generally in good shape, farm production cost growth has been relatively slow, farmers have gained in productivity improvement and efficiency and crop surpluses do not rival previous levels.
  The fret about drought conditions seems lessened because of the recent soaking rains in the Delta.
  “Basically, people feel real good about the moisture we’re having now, going into the planting season,” Hood said. “In fact, most everybody is waiting for it to dry up so they can start planting.”
  Even though the U.S. farm economy looks improved, a cloud hovers over the agricultural industry. The U.S. Department of Agriculture predicted an overall decrease of $2 billion in farm cash receipts over last year. Lower government payments are predicted, which could reduce net cash income 20% from 1999 and the lowest since 1986.
  Like most farmers, Hood is anxiously awaiting the outcome of federal agricultural legislation.
  “We’d like to know what kind of farm bill we’ll have in the future and what’s in store for agriculture,” he said. “Needless to say, the outcome will be very important,”