“The race may not always go to the swift nor the battle to the strong—but that is a pretty good way to bet.”

Well, it’s now official. What the smart money folks have been banking on for some time now has come to pass, courtesy of the U.S. Census Bureau – Mississippi will lose a congressional seat and must now reapportion its five congressional districts into four. Sit back, boys and girls, the fun and games are about to begin.
The redistricting process is the responsibility of the Mississippi Legislature and the ladies and gentlemen (using the terms criminally loosely) of that body must be governed by a guiding principle of “one man, one vote,” some established benchmarks within the U.S. Department of Justice, and, first and foremost, that which they determine to be in their own best personal and political interests.
A decade ago, following the 1990 Census, the Legislature added more black voters (primarily in Hinds County) to the 2nd District, a Voting Rights Act-blamed move which effectively did two things: virtually guaranteed the election of a black congressman from the Delta District, and considerably “whitened-up” and made more Republican both the 1st and 3rd districts.
That option, often referred to as “packing” within the redistricting trade, will not be available to legislators this year, nor can they expect to get away with a significant dilution of the 2nd District’s minority voting strength. That will be absolutely the first thing the Justice Department looks at when the Mississippi plan is submitted for its “pre-clearance.”
Many Delta leaders were infuriated 10 years ago when the Legislature added more black votes to the 2nd District, in that the region had, in consecutive elections, voted for a moderate black, Mike Espy, with considerable cross-over white votes. Since then, many of those leaders have, absent of any judicious lowering of voice, openly anticipated the upcoming reapportionment, believing that its results would better allow them to oust Bennie Thompson.
But that reasoning denied two very important realities that existed 10 years ago and are only reinforced today: 1) No significant dilution of black voters in Mississippi’s only black-majority district will ever pass Justice Department muster, and 2) the once-significant Delta clout within the Legislature exists now only as a trace-memory for some of the region’s leadership.
The idea, cherished by some here, that reapportionment will allow them to somehow “get rid of” Bennie Thompson is simply another illusion fostered by folks who apparently see no problem inherent within the practice of consistently whistling past political graveyards.
Ain’t gonna happen.
So what will? The only thing for certain is the obvious—with the state’s population having grown to about 2.8 million, each of the four new districts will have to be considerably bigger, about 700,000 people each, and two of the state’s incumbent congressmen will have to run against each other for re-election in 2002.
While some observers have been quick to say that the Democratic-dominated Legislature is likely to create a new configuration favoring a Democratic incumbent (Shows, for example), one would do well to remember the following: a great many Mississippi legislators (with the critical example of the Black Caucus) are Democratic in name only and privately identify much more closely with the Republican agenda.
Deals will be cut. Futures will be bet. Old chits will be called in. Raw power will be exercised and the people of Mississippi will once again be reminded that the most dangerous time for anyone in this state is when the Legislature is in session. DBJ

(Ray Mosby is the publisher and editor of The Deer Creek Pilot in Rolling Fork.)