By Elizabeth Reid
Contributing Writer, DBJ

  The Delta Council's 1999 Economic Progress Report is more than merely a financial snapshot of the 18-county area. It's a report card, giving solid, healthy marks, that spans 18 years of economic growth in the Mississippi Delta.
  "The important thing to note is that this measures progress over time," said Mark Manning, Director of Development at Delta Council. "By measuring trend lines over time, we think you get a much better picture of where we are headed."
  For instance, manufacturing employment in the Delta increased 22% in the last 18 years, even though U.S. manufacturing employment remained flat or decreased, Manning said.
  "More importantly, wages are up and we now have a manufacturing payroll of over $1.05 billion," he said. "In 1990, our per capita income was 90% of the Mississippi average and 60% of the U.S. average. In 1998, we were at 97% of the state average and 70% of the U.S. average. Obviously, someone is not looking at the entire picture."
  The Mississippi Delta has achieved significant progress by balancing historical strengths in agriculture with an emerging manufacturing and service sector, said Griffin Norquist, Jr., chairman of the development department.
  "In addition, economic impacts from gaming related activities are providing new impacts to the economy not foreseen even a few short years ago," he said. "Contrary to some perspectives, the Delta has achieved rather remarkable increases in employment, income and agricultural production. It should not be seen as coincidence that the Delta is narrowing the gap in general economic indicators such as per capita income."
  The Delta Council was established in 1935 to address concerns such as flood control, highway improvement, agriculture and related research in Northwest Mississippi. Since then, the council's structure has expanded to include committees on advisory research, aquaculture, forestry and wildlife resources and educational policy.
  "In 1956, Delta Council's leadership recognized the need in the region's economy to expand and thus established a full-time economic development effort in the region," said Curt Presley, Jr., president of the Delta Council. "The Development Department was established to help meet these needs. This department, supported by contribution from area boards of supervisors as well as by agricultural, business and professional leaders through the 'Delta 1000' program, is quite effective and is recognized across the state as a leading economic development entity."
  Dr. Phillip W. Pepper, state economist for the Mississippi Institutions of Higher Learning, said only five Delta counties; DeSoto, Panola, Tate, Warren and Washington - have more people living in them than they did in 1930. As agriculture was mechanized and people moved to find jobs, the other 13 counties lost population and continue to lose population because of a lack of job opportunities.
  In 1998, population in the Mississippi Delta was estimated at 521,319, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. DeSoto County's population nearly doubled from 1980 to 1998. In 1980, the population was listed at 53,930. In 1990, the number grew to 67,910. In 1998, estimated totals were 96,897. The population in Issaquena County, the region's least populated county, decreased 35% in the same time period. In 1980, slightly more than 2,500 people lived there. In 1990, the number decreased to 1,909. By 1998, less than 1,700 lived in Issaquena County.
  "As a result of the Memphis urban sprawl, DeSoto is now the fastest growing, highest per capita income county in the state," he said. "Tate and Panola counties are also showing strong population growth from this Memphis sprawl. Because of gaming and related activities, Tunica County has gone from having the lowest per capita income in the nation to being the 19th highest in the state in 1998."
  Overall, per capita income and population rose as the region outpaced the rest of the state in manufacturing job growth. From 1980 to 1998, total employed increased 16%; total manufacturing employed rose 22% while manufacturing wages jumped 160%.
  But retail sales have lacked luster. With a total of $4.7 billion in retail sales in the Delta, nearly 20%, or $920 million, occurred in DeSoto County. Even with gaming and related activities, Tunica County reported only $337 million.
  "In 1990, the Delta region had only 92% of the retail sales that could be expected given the income in the region," he said. "People were going to Jackson, Memphis and other population centers to make retail purchases. By 1997, even with the gaming industry, retail sales in the Delta had declined to 89% of what could be expected, given income in the area. The lack of local retail activity was much greater in some counties and individual communities. The Delta appears to be gradually losing its retail sales base, particularly in rural areas. This lost base helps explain the slow job growth in the retail-wholesale sector."
Row crops and aquaculture continue to be the dominant agricultural enterprises in the Delta, said Dr. John E. Lee, Jr., professor and chairman of the Agriculture Economics Department at Mississippi State University.
  "As a share of total 1998 Mississippi crop production, the Delta accounted for 99% of the rice, 81% of the cotton, 80% of the soybeans, 73% of the corn, 80% of the wheat and 87% of the grain sorghum," Lee said. "The Delta also accounted for 91% of the value of catfish production in the state."
  Delta crops brought strong prices in 1996 and 1997, but problems emerged as world prices for cotton, soybeans and grains fell sharply in the second half of 1998 when the Asian economic crisis reduced export demand in the face of large global supplies.
  "Yields were also reduced by hot, dry weather," he said. "Lower prices continued into 1999 and could last another one to three years. Prices for cotton and soybeans are at their lowest levels in three decades. Market prices in general are below break-even levels for full cost recovery for average producers."
  Congress provided significant disaster assistance packages in 1998 and 1999, Lee said.
  "The current stress resulting from low prices will likely lead to further consolidation of farms in the Delta," he said. "Astute farm business managers who understand government programs and complex marketing strategies will survive and even do well. But those producers who came into the current low price situation with heavy debts and who are less astute in financial management and marketing will have difficulty staying in farming."
  Steady growth in the supply and demand of catfish, with strong and relatively stable prices combined with lower feed prices increased profitability in the catfish industry. In 1998, with $306 million in catfish sales in the state, the Delta accounted for 91% of that, tallying $278 million in sales. Humphreys County alone listed $83 million.
  "The next three to five years will see a Delta agriculture with increasingly high levels of technology, high level business management skills, fewer and larger farms and a growing catfish industry," Lee said.