Even though Congressmen are mulling over sweeping changes in crop insurance and agricultural programs, it may take two years before legislation is passed.
  "Many people see crop insurance and agricultural programs as one issue instead of two, with crop insurance actually becoming the next farm program," said Hunt Shipman of Senator Thad Cochran's office in Washington, D.C. "We have crop insurance bills pending in the Senate. The House has already passed a bill with legislation authored by Congressman Larry Combest, chairman of the House Agriculture Committee. In the Senate, we have several different bills, including the House-passed bill, which is now awaiting action. Sen. Cochran has a bill, Sen. Dick Luger, chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee, has a bill, and a coalition of Midwest members has a bill, which probably has the most cosponsors but not necessarily the widest support within the Senate."
  The number of bills that have been introduced indicates the importance of the issue, said consultant John Lundy of Jackson.
  "Producers are saying they need more managing tools," Lundy said. "They need some type of insurance - or assurance - that they can continue producing."
  Particularly in the last two years, there's been much interest in rewriting the 1996 Freedom to Farm Bill, Shipman said.
  "Most of those cries for change were the result of huge declines in prices that occurred - not as a result of a particular farm bill," he said. "In fact, there have been a lot of analyses done by academic groups and independent parties that said if the old farm bill had been in place these last few years, prices would actually have been worse than they are right now."
  The last farm bill was drafted and passed with the assumption that the current administration would continue to knock down trade barriers and help with the export of commodities, Lundy said.
  "Not to point fingers, but that hasn't worked," he said. "Republicans who are currently in control are getting blamed by some people about the farm bill and the problems associated with it. They were in charge when it was drafted, but it was only going to work if everybody did their part. The biggest part that hasn't worked has been the export of our products. For example, poultry is a huge export for the state of Mississippi, but yet we've got huge trade problems with Russia, and Russia has its own problems. Right there is an example of an industry that can be helped by this administration stepping in, instead of having Congress, every time there's a crisis, draft legislation. The problem is, it's still very technical, detailed and complex. When Combest tried to defend it on the Senate floor, it couldn't be explained in five minutes."
  The bottom line is that prices are lower than they've ever been, Shipman said.
  "There are a lot of people who want to find some place to point the blame," he said. "The only feasible thing they can point to is the farm bill. But prices are lower than they've ever been as a result of the Asian flu, declines in export markets, production increases in other parts of the world and unusual circumstances that occurred at the same time. You can't assign one event or policy that precipitated all of that."
  Last year, disaster assistance legislation was passed for the first time since 1994, when $2.5 billion was allocated after floods hit the Midwest, Shipman said.
  "Last year's action was important in two respects," he said. "It was the first time we had ever provided assistance to deal with economic losses. It was the first time we had provided crop loss insurance since 1994 when we passed crop insurance reform legislation. That legislation was supposed to do away with disaster assistance, which was supposed to make crop insurance more  affordable for farmers and eliminate the need for disaster assistance by Congress."
Last year's disaster relief legislation totaled almost $5.9 billion. This year's tally was $9.2 billion, he said.
  "Last year, about $3 billion was market loss payment and about $1.8 billion was for crop losses," Shipman said. "That comprised the bulk of $5.9 billion. The rest is a long list of small numbers. This year, Congress stepped in again with an even worse economic situation and provided almost $9.2 billion in two separate bills. $8.7 billion was in the first bill, then we added another $577 million. That's three to four times more than we've ever done before for any specific disaster. It's the first time farmers made crops but didn't get an economic return to cover production costs."
  With a year left in Congress - an election year, at that - and two years left in the current farm bill, it's difficult to predict what changes might take place, Shipman said.
  "Congressman Larry Combest plans to hold hearings this spring on the current farm bill to analyze whether it provides enough assistance to farmers when prices are low," Shipman said. "It's noteworthy to point out that Combest is one of four representatives, who, when this farm bill was written, originally voted against it. It's anybody's guess whether this is his way of trying to appease critics of the bill without doing anything or whether he really intends to try to do something. I wouldn't want to predict his motivation or strategy but I think people can draw those conclusions themselves."
  In January, when Lundy and a group of agricultural advocates from Mississippians met with Combest, they were told it wasn't "just for show," Lundy said.
  "Combest said he was serious and wanted to hear from different regions of the country," Lundy said.
  During consideration of both disaster packages, amendments that have been offered in the House and Senate have been rejected, Shipman said.
  "Since the farm bill was passed in 1996, the argument against making changes has been that it was a six-year contract with farmers that guarantees a declining amount of money over that time period," he said. "The government promised farmers changes would not be made during the middle of the game. Perhaps Combest sees this as an opportunity as making changes for the next farm bill."
  Senator Thad Cochran said the farm industry will likely be in the limelight as a result of emphasis placed by presidential candidates on their plans for supporting agriculture and related activities.
  "I think Congress is going to take its cue from suggestions by presidential candidates," Cochran said. "We have in place a farm bill that does not expire for another couple of years and it is not likely that any major changes will be made in farm policy between now and the next president's first year in office. Then will be the opportunity to completely review and revisit what government can do to insure  a healthy and productive agriculture sector."
  If crop insurance becomes the next farm bill, highly government subsidized revenue insurance products would probably take the place of traditional price supports, Shipman said.
  "This is not a reasonable expectation for Mississippi farmers because too many can't afford crop insurance as it is," he said. "When you add yield risk protection and price risk protection, the product becomes terribly expensive. Those products are available now in the state and Mississippi has the second lowest participation in crop insurance in the country, with Arkansas having slightly lower participation. If we substituted, we would make the situation worse, not better."
  Even though rate adjustments have been made to crop insurance for cotton producers, and Delta counties should see a reduction of 35 to 50%, many farmers are viewing the change with skepticism, Shipman said.
  "Some farmers think crop insurance doesn't work and is too expensive for the coverage provided," he said. "It will be a big job for the U.S. Department of Agriculture and crop insurance agents to get the word out to take another look at it. That's also complicated by the fact that we have legislation pending in Congress that may change crop insurance rules all over again. But that's part of the nature of farming. Congress is always going to change laws, hopefully for the better, but it does make it difficult for farmers to make decisions with that type of uncertainty."
  Fred Miller, president of the Bank of Anguilla and president of the Mississippi Bankers Association, who also met with Combest, said there must be changes this year.
  "We've got to have something that gives us a safety net," Miller said.