BY Molly Matthews
  Subsidies from the federal government helped Delta farmers stay afloat in cotton, corn, soybean and rice crops while pecan and catfish farmers had bumper crops. But forecasting 2000 crops isn't easy, say agricultural industry experts. Woods Eastland of Staplcotn, one of the oldest companies in Greenwood, said it's difficult to say how this year's crops will fare "because our marketing year lasts until spring and we don't have a good number yet on what the world production is in some very important countries."
  "Almost all cotton is loan eligible," he said. "The farmers' total price is determined by the spread between the adjusted world price and futures. That spread has been as wide as 20 to 22 cents and, historically, that's very good. Once enough (cotton) is sold and merchants have what they need for a while, that spread will narrow. Then, as merchants liquidate their inventory, it will widen again."
  Stephen L. Rochelle, CEO of First South Production Credit Association, said that overall, 1999 yields were average to above average.
  "With government payments, most farmers that we are financing will probably pay out with us on their operating loans," Rochelle said. "But 2000 is a whole different area because there is no guarantee what the government is going to do. If you look at a good farmer and cash flow him based on what the commodity marks will give him today, it's very difficult unless the government comes in with other support prices or increased payments. At this point, we don't know what will happen and we have to base it on what the market gives us today. We're doing everything we can to continue financing for farmers."
Bleak commodity prices and unsteady agricultural land values may have temporarily reduced the wealth of the Mississippi Delta, said Dr. O.A. Cleveland, marketing specialist for the Mississippi State University extension service.
  "One of the most severe problems with low crop prices facing the Delta is the tremendous pressure placed on growers to plant cotton or grains," Cleveland said. "As we reduce our acreage consistent with the current farm legislation, it tends to deteriorate our agricultural infrastructure. Once we lose that infrastructure, it makes it much more difficult to reclaim that land in a productive fashion. In the short run, we have seen legislation tend to increase prices for agricultural land. In the long run, with the deterioration of infrastructure that we are seeing, land value will decline significantly."
  Changes in agriculture policy and the global economic crisis outside of the U.S. have attributed to agricultural woes, he said.
"Until the supply and demand curve shifts, it will be a very difficult time for farmers in the Delta," he said. "We are probably two to five years away from having the demand rebuilt."
  Government aid "doesn't solve the long-term problem," he said.
  Agricultural business leaders "need to be very appreciative that agriculture in Mississippi has the ear of our congressional people," said Sells Newman, senior vice president of First South PCA.
  "We're very fortunate that our congressional delegation in Mississippi and in the nation understands what kind of economic impact it would have on the economy in Mississippi if something was not done," Newman said. "They've always been there and seen the problems farmers face in Mississippi. If the farm economy falls, it affects everybody."
  Average land values recently surpassed the previous average highs for the Delta region set in 1981, said John Dean, Jr., owner of LANDMART/Dean Land Realty Company in Leland.
  "Although we appear to be on the verge of a farm crisis, both buyers and sellers seem to be acting as if they don't expect the current low commodity prices to continue more than a year or two," Dean said. "However, should low (crop) prices prove to be the rule over the next several years, land prices will most certainly spiral downward."
  A bright spot in Delta farming has been pecan crops that will be the largest on record nationwide, said Nolan Branton, president of Delta Pecans in Greenwood.
  "There's no particular reason why this is the best crop ever," said Branton, who buys and sells several million pounds of pecans every year. "But this is our best crop since the 1994 ice storm. Usually, you'll have good crops in Georgia and maybe Texas, and a weak crop in the middle, but this year, everything is on."
  Mike and Suzanne Powers, owners of Delta Pecan Orchard in Tutwiler, who sell 90% of their pecans via Internet sales, reported their best crop ever.
  Catfish processing has gone from a little more than 200 million pounds a year to perhaps 600 million pounds, said Henry Gantz, president of The Catfish Institute in Belzoni, home of more than 30,000 acres of catfish.
  "This is a very historic year for catfish farming," Gantz said. "We have been very fortunate to have historically high pond bank prices and historically low feed prices."