Will the Delta run out of water?
Gloom and doom reports from outside sources greatly exaggerated, experts say

Map of Water Use | Map of Water Decline

Even though farmers have endured two years of extreme drought conditions,
the Delta will not run out of water, experts say.
"Even though there have been some declines and some farmers have sometimes
had to lower their pump intakes in the wells there's still plenty of water.
There is not a crisis," says Charlotte Bryant Byrd, environmental scientist
for the state department of environmental quality.
According to the Yazoo-Mississippi-Delta Joint Water Management District
(YMDJWM), nearly 90% of agricultural water use in the Mississippi Delta
comes from groundwater in the Mississippi River Alluvial Aquifer, and is
used on approximately 100,000 acres of catfish ponds, 275,000 acres of rice,
and more than 1,000,000 acres of cotton and beans. Before 1998, water levels
in the aquifer were dropping at a rate of one-third of a foot every year.
While it was not an alarming rate, it does show the need for water
conservation measures to balance use with supply, says Judith McGaugh of the
YMDJWM.
"The dry years of 1998 and 1999 produced groundwater level declines of about
one and a half feet per year and the summer of 2000 looks like another big
water use year," she says. "If we were to use up this water supply,
Mississippi would lose the tremendous economic benefits it provides."
Last month, Congress approved a $2 billion aid program that was expected to
be signed by President Clinton by press time. Farmers that suffered more
than 35% in crop losses compared to historic yields because of drought
conditions will be eligible for compensation as early as January.
Agriculture Secretary Dan Glickman has declared the entire state of
Mississippi an agricultural disaster area due to drought and excessive heat.
The declaration makes farmers in the state and adjoining counties eligible
for USDA emergency loans.
Dr. Charles Wax, a climatologist and head of the geoscience department at
Mississippi State University, says even though the Delta is experiencing a
drought of staggering proportions, it is not a record setter.
"The Delta has not been as hard hit as a couple of other places in the
state, like south central Mississippi, where they went many more days
without rain," Wax says. "In September, most places in the upper Delta
reported between one and two inches of rain. In the lower Delta, Stoneville
and Yazoo City, for instance, received more than two inches of rain. But the
biggest problem with sporadic rain was the searing heat that went with it.
That's one of the things that leads to yield declines."
In the Delta, a lot of the water is derived from the shallow Mississippi
River Alluvial Aquifer, recharged by the Mississippi River and by rainfall,
Wax says.
"Of course the river has gone down and there's not as much replenishment,"
he says. "I've not heard that any wells have dried up. That is the source of
water for our catfish ponds. In 1988 that shallow aquifer did begin to dry
up and that year was a worse condition than what we've just gone through. We
had to enact some water conservation measures in 1988 for the catfish
farmers.
Even though many experts point to the Mississippi River as the main recharge
of water supply for the Delta, it's not, says Byrd.
"The geology dictates what happens with the aquifer and we really don't yet
understand where a lot of the water comes from," she says. "We have
conducted studies and found that the Mississippi River is not the main
source of recharge. Rainfall plays a part. The Mississippi River recharges,
but the river stage has to be above the aquifer level, and there's got to be
a good head on the river for that water to go back into the aquifer. When
the stages are up, there is certainly recharge for the area adjacent to the
river. The same is true for the bluff hills with heavy rains. Rainfall on
the surface contributes to a small degree. The interior streams also
contribute some. There are also underlying aquifers and where those sands
are in direct contact with the alluvium, there is recharge from those, but
even that depends on the time of year."
Overall, the levels haven't declined significantly in the Delta, Byrd says.
"In the very central part of the Delta in east central Sunflower and west
central LeFlore counties you might find a decline - maybe a foot and a half
over the last year or two," she says.
In Mississippi, the aquifer is confined to the Delta, with the Mississippi
River as the dividing line, Byrd says.
"Well diggers typically dig about 100 to 120 feet deep," she says. "They
could go much deeper, and therefore put their pump intakes deeper, and they
wouldn't have some of the problems they're having now."
Wells aren't drying up; pump intakes are too shallow, Byrd says.
"Just because levels drop below the pump intakes doesn't mean the wells are
dry," she says.
The quality of water has been tested repeatedly, with no signs of
contamination, Byrd says.
Kevin Brophy, water resource specialist for YMDJWM, says Sunflower County,
located in the heart of the Delta, is the best barometer for drought
conditions because it represents the worst case scenario with its heavy use
for rice crops and catfish ponds and its slower recharge of water supply.
"The most drastic rate drop we've seen was one and half feet from April 1999
to April 2000," he says. "But no wells are dry. As a matter of fact, there
are some old wells, the hand pump types, where the water can still be
accessed with a tape measure."
The alluvial aquifer is not about to run dry, Brophy insists.
"Some of the farmers are having to lower their pumps because they weren't
deep enough and they begin to get surging which burns the pumps up," he
says. "A lot of older wells are having to be reworked to go deeper but the
aquifer goes down 150 feet, and the deepest water level in Sunflower County
is probably 60 feet to the water. There's no cause for alarm. It's taking
care of itself. If we get a good wet winter, we'll have a good recharge for
next year."
The YMDJWM is developing new surface water supplies by placing low water
weirs at certain locations to store more water in natural channels and lakes
and implementing interbasin transfers, McGaugh says.
"This extra storage will capture and hold rainfall and irrigation runoff to
irrigate land adjacent to the enhanced water supply because water stored in
these lakes can also be released during dry periods to add to low flows in
Delta streams," she says. "Several lakes and channels located throughout the
Delta have been identified as candidates for this style of modest size
projects."
Interbasin transfers move water from river systems with more water than they
need, into river systems that need more water for irrigation, McGaugh says.
"This work is just beginning but has the potential of supplying thousands of
acre-feet of water a year to the Delta," she says.
 The National Weather Service's 90-day forecast for precipitation shows
above average rainfall for an area encompassing Texas, Oklahoma, western
Arkansas, Louisiana and southern Mississippi, but not including the Delta.
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