Agribusiness:
GROWER SEES POTENTIAL IN RICE HYBRIDS
WHEAT PRICE OUTLOOK REMAINS STABLE
Grower sees potential in rice hybrids
It’s all about yield, and I see real yield potential with hybrid rice
By DOREEN MUZZI
DBJ Contributing Writer
Harry Howarth’s Bolivar County rice fields appear no different from the hundreds of others dotting the Delta landscape, but appearances can be deceiving.
Howarth’s hybrid plants are the products of a relatively new rice breeding technology. Unlike conventional rice varieties which are bred through the self pollination of a single variety, hybrid rice results from the cross-pollination of two inbred parent lines, one of which is male-sterile with no pollen. This “female” line then produces the hybrid seed.
“There’s no doubt the hybrids are gaining in popularity,” says rice specialist Tim Walker with the Delta Research and Extension Center in Stoneville, Miss. “Hybrids do have a fit in Mississippi. I don’t know if that fit is immediate, or is a few years down the road as private companies continue to develop hybrids with more improved agronomic characteristics, such as better straw strength and milling increases. With these improvements, hybrids will become more of a player in the Delta as long as the potential remains to capture high yields with this breeding technique.”
Howarth agrees the allure of hybrid rice boils down to its ability to positively impact his bottom line. “It’s all about yield, and I see real yield potential with hybrid rice.”
An early adopter of the hybrid breeding technology, the Howarth family has been growing rice hybrids for about a decade. That’s because, several years before they were commercially available, they made their farm available to the developers of the technology for on-farm research.
The difference between conventional rice varieties and rice hybrids, proponents of the production system say, is a resulting plant that tillers excessively to produce high-yielding, good milling rice with a lower plant population and better disease resistance.
Walker agrees that growers planting hybrids are likely to save some money on fungicides. “The hybrids obviously have a very strong disease package, and for the most part we’re not going to treat them with fungicides. That could equate to a savings of close to $30 per acre for some growers,” he says. “Hybrids are not as susceptible to most diseases, such as sheath blight and blast, as some of the conventional varieties being grown in Mississippi.”
This increased disease resistance has enabled Howarth to eliminate fungicide treatments in his hybrid rice fields.
Hybrid rice growers could potentially capture additional cost savings with reduced fertility treatments. “Just a few years ago the fertility recommendations for hybrids were much lower than what is generally recommended for conventional varieties. Those rates are more comparable now, but the application timing is different,” says Howarth. “We’re not putting out two mid-season applications anymore, and a lot more is going out pre-flood. Hybrids also don’t use a mid-season treatment, as such. Instead, fertilizer is applied between the early boot stage and the five percent heading stage, which is much later than is used in conventional rice varieties.”
All of these apparent advantages come at a price, of course. Hybrid rice seed is substantially more expensive than its conventional counterpart, and because seeding rates are much lower, stand establishment is critical.
Figures tabulated by RiceTec, which developed and markets commercially available hybrid rice lines, put the per-acre production cost for hybrid rice at $175, and production costs for the conventional variety Cocodrie at $206 per acre. The company estimates include seed, herbicides, fertilizer, fungicide and insecticide costs.
“The seed cost is greater for hybrid rice, but the yield potential is supposed to offset that expense,” says Howarth. “You also plant a lot less seed with hybrid rice. With conventional seed you can plant a little insurance seed to make sure you establish an adequate stand. You just don’t have that extra measure of insurance with hybrid rice.”
Seeding rate guidelines in Mississippi generally recommend planting between 30 and 40 seeds per square foot for conventional rice varieties, and about 14 seeds per square foot for hybrid rice.
Walker says hybrid rice may offer better seedling vigor, but there are some things that can still decrease stand. “When you start with only 30 pounds of seed planted per acre, your stand can get spotty in a hurry in situations of seedling disease, glyphosate drift, or bird damage. Simply having the necessary equipment to plant 30 pounds of seed uniformly is also critical,” he says.
“The potential for increased yield is the number one selling point for hybrid rice. That’s the number one game in town. Milling is good, but yield is where the money is made,” says Walker. “On average, the hybrids appear to outperform conventional varieties in terms of yield over a host of different environments. Our economic data says that even though we’ve documented a yield increase with the hybrids, some of our conventional varieties are still the most economical varieties to produce.”
He says, “At this point, I can’t say that growing a hybrid rice is better economically that growing a conventional variety. The recently released hybrid XP710 is probably the first hybrid we’ve seen that economically is superior to most conventional varieties, because it has yielded at least 20 bushels more per acre.”
Howarth says, “It’s yielded really well for us, with the added benefit of milling premiums. Overall, 2003 was a really good year, and all of the hybrids we planted yielded right up there with everything else. Everyone who grows rice knows you have good years and not so good years, but you see less yield variability with hybrid rice. Hybrid rice may not bump up some 30 bushels from one year to the next, but it does not drop by those amounts either.” DBJ
Wheat price outlook remains stable
Conflicting market factors hold market steady
By DOREEN MUZZI
DBJ Contributing Writer
Delta producers on the heels of wheat harvest shouldn’t expect wheat prices to vary much in the weeks ahead, with economists describing the market as “relatively stable.”
“Reduced wheat production in the United States is being offset by lower use numbers and record crops anticipated by some of our major competitors,” says John Anderson, an agricultural economist at Mississippi State University in Starkville, Miss. “Overall, growers are looking at a price range that is very similar to last year.”
The United States Department of Agriculture’s World Agriculture Outlook Board is predicting a market year average wheat price of $3.25 to $3.85 per bushel. That range is fairly consistent with last year’s average price of $3.40 per bushel for the 12-month period between the 2003 wheat harvest and the spring of 2004, and the 2002-03 season-average price of $3.56.
However, Anderson says, the potential is there for somewhat higher wheat prices.
“The futures market looks better than it did last year. As of June 7, 2004, the July 2004 Futures price was $3.64 per bushel, and the September 2004 Futures price was $3.74. In comparison, on the same date in 2003 the July 2003 Futures price for wheat was $3.30 per bushel, and the September 2003 price was $3.35 per bushel,” he says.
Conflicting market factors are currently holding wheat prices steady, according to Anderson. USDA is calling for lower U.S. wheat production in 2004, but the government agency is also predicting a significant reduction in total use, with much of this reduction blamed on smaller export numbers and reduced feed use.
According to the USDA’s Economic Research Service, U.S. growers are projected to harvest nine percent less wheat in 2004 than they did in 2003, with an average winter wheat yield of 44.2 bushels per acre or 2.5 bushels less than last year. This year’s winter wheat crop was harvested on about 35.1 million acres, a reduction of 1.5 million acres over last year’s figures.
Globally, wheat production is expected to be up by seven percent this year, with improved yields expected in many countries, particularly across much of Europe.
Anderson says, “We’ve got some other major wheat producing countries expecting large production increases in 2004, including the European Union, India, Russia, and the Ukraine. The European Union is anticipating a record wheat harvest in 2004, and Russia’s wheat crop is expected to be 17 percent larger than a year ago.”
USDA is pegging foreign wheat production in 2004-05 at a seven-year high of 532 million tons. The increase is attributed to an increase in planted acres and favorable growing conditions this past winter.
In other areas of the world, India’s wheat production is projected up seven million tons and China’s production is projected down two million tons. In the Middle East wheat projection is projected up one percent, reports USDA.
Counter-acting the higher production numbers are globally higher projected use figures and lower export levels. With reduced beginning stocks offsetting increased production, world wheat supplies remain relatively unchanged from a year ago, according to USDA figures.
“World wheat use in 2004-05 is expected to exceed production for the fifth consecutive year, dropping world wheat ending stocks to the lowest level in 28 years,” the Economic Research Service reports.
On the export side of the equation, USDA is expecting U.S. wheat exports will drop 20 percent this year because of tight domestic supplies and increased competition. The world wheat trade is also expected to decline this year due to reduced imports by the former Soviet Union and the European Union. These declines more than offset a five-million-ton increase projected for China, according to the Economic Research Service.
“U.S. wheat exports in 2004-05 are projected at 26 million tons, down 6.5 million from the forecast for the previous year,” USDA says. “Early in the season, U.S. exports are expected to get off to a good start as harvest pressure makes U.S. prices more competitive at a time when the largest competitors will not have new-crop wheat ready to ship. In most years, these countries’ export programs do not begin until sometime between September and December. However, later in the 2004-05 marketing year, as reduced supplies lead to high U.S. prices, the U.S. market share is expected to drop.”
Anderson adds, “We should see prices begin to stabilize, unless some big news hits the wheat market.” DBJ
