The recent statewide elections have broad implications for Mississippi economic policy, including issues such as education, workforce training, and tort reform. What does the upcoming term of Republican Governor-elect Haley Barbour, the continued tenure of Republican Lieutenant Governor Amy Tuck, and the presumptive Speaker of the House election of Democratic Representative Billy McCoy mean for Delta businesses?

DBJ interviewed Marty Wiseman, director of the Stennis Institute of Government at Mississippi State University; Phil Pepper, state economist for Mississippi’s government, and Jay Moon, director of the Mississippi Manufacturing Association.

All agreed that education on all levels was the key to economic growth in the Delta region—and all agreed that funding any new programs would be very, very difficult in the current economic environment.

“I think in the Delta more than in other places, you need to emphasize pre-Kindergarten as well as workforce development,” says Wiseman. “If I were lobbying on behalf of the Delta that would be what I would have at the top of the list: the development of human capital.”

While Pepper says he has no insight or thoughts into any of the new administrations’ plans, he notes that education is likely to absorb what little projected increase the state budget may see for the next fiscal year. “The revenue estimate for next year is 2.5% growth in revenue—and the teachers’ pay raise is going to eat that up,” says Pepper. “I don’t think you’re going to see any new expenditure. I think what we’ll see is not new money but reconfigurations of current allocations.”

Pepper’s office, which prepares various reports on economic activity for the state, has found consistent data to support the need for a continued emphasis on education. “Given the low educational attainment in Mississippi, it’s going to be very difficult for Mississippi in the next few years,” Pepper says. “Unless we change our attitude towards education in the state, from the state level all the way to the individual level, it’s going to continue to be difficult for Mississippi.”

Moon, whose group was the first business association to endorse Barbour for governor, notes that Barbour’s remarks on the need for coordinated, consistent workforce training programs were a major factor in MMA’s support for his candidacy. “We’re going to have to make a commitment to retraining our workers,” says Moon. “We have to make a clear allocation of resources that is consistent from year to year.”

Wiseman indicates that any new workforce training programs targeted to the Delta would likely have to pay for themselves through administrative streamlining and prioritizing of current efforts. “Expansion and targeting of existing programs of the kind the Delta needs is probably the best strategy,” says Wiseman.

And Moon indicated that Mississippi, in both the public and private sector, may as well get ready to keep workforce training as a funding priority. “Training and retraining is going to be something we are going to have to live with from here on out,” says Moon.

The overall economic trends are mixed in Mississippi, with larger urban centers and surrounding counties making strides in jobs and growth, while rural areas are forecast to continue losing jobs and population, according to studies Pepper cites that his office has prepared. Much of the Delta area is rural with fewer educational and employment opportunities, which Pepper says makes its struggles similar to those of other rural areas across the country.

Moon sees hope for the manufacturing economy in Mississippi after reviewing both the current national economic indicators and information he’s receiving from members of MMA. Textile and furniture factories are suffering decreases, particularly due to competition from China. Moon notes that the Delta has taken the brunt of manufacturing losses in Mississippi, a trend he hopes a new administration can reverse.

However, increases in durable goods, such as automobiles and cast metal products, are fueling growth throughout Mississippi, mostly due to the ripple effects from brisk auto sales “If the economy continues to improve and we see demands on inventory continue to ruse, we’ll begin to see some stability and even expansion of our manufacturing sectors,” Moon says.

With many longtime elected officials leaving public service due to retirement or election defeats and the rise of party influence in the Legislature, new personalities have come on the scene, causing some speculation on how well all the centers of political power in the state will get along to get business done.

One of the bigger questions is how well Barbour and Tuck will be able to work with Congressman Bennie Thompson, whose congressional district includes the Delta region. “You have a lot of people speculating on that,” says Wiseman. “I think they’re going to have to learn how to sit down and talk with Bennie Thompson.”

Thompson is known for championing the needs of his constituents and has particular rapport with many elected officials in small Delta towns throughout the area. The Republican Party has made no secret of its desire to unseat Thompson, and relations with top elected officials will play out against the backdrop of a hard-fought Congressional election next year, according to Wiseman.

However, Wiseman predicts that Barbour will make every effort to engage Thompson in efforts to promote economic growth in his district. “Haley Barbour is used to dealing with people on all sides of the aisle as a Washington lobbyist,” says Wiseman. “You can’t write anybody off—and Haley knows that.”

Regional politics was predicted to be a large factor in the race to replace longtime Speaker of the House, Tim Ford, who did not run for reelection in his district. Observers predicted clashes between north Mississippi, Delta, and coastal lawmakers, as well as factional splits between Republicans and Democrats within their parties. But with the apparently successful vote-soliciting effort by Representative Billy McCoy, the expected infighting is likely to be eliminated altogether, according to Wiseman.

“If there was not a Billy McCoy waiting in the wings, you’d see a lot more of that sectionalism,” says Wiseman. “You’ve got someone who absolutely has built a career on fair play. He never has, in any way, symbolically or otherwise, ever been accused of selling his vote to anybody.”

Moon wouldn’t comment on some business groups’ stated intentions of working to defeat McCoy in his House race and indicated that his group expected a smooth relationship with the new leadership. “We think we are going to be able to work with the new Speaker and the team he’ll be putting into leadership,” says Moon.

Wiseman was less sanguine about relationships between Barbour and legislative leadership, pointing to the pre-eminent position the legislature holds in the balance of power. “If the legislature decides to buck some lines drawn in the sand by the governor-elect and the lieutenant governor, that would give an increase of resources for the Delta to go after,” Wiseman notes.

However, gains among fellow Republicans in the legislature, who may decide to support Barbour out of party unity or ideological agreement, could strengthen Barbour’s hand somewhat if he decides to use the veto to shape policy, Wiseman says.

Overall, Moon was the most optimistic about the new administration coming into Jackson next January. “We think it’s going to be good for the business community, and I speak specifically of the Delta business community and Delta manufacturing,” says Moon. DBJ